Core Insight: The Washington Capitals are projected to top the Metropolitan Division in the 2026-27 NHL standings, while the Rangers and Islanders face the toughest path.
Key Highlight: Capitals’ projected win total rises to 49, driven by a 22.5% power‑play success rate.
Actionable Advice: Teams should prioritize defensive zone exits to close the projected 2‑goal differential gap.
NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) – The NHL standings for the 2026-27 season are shaping up around a tightly contested Metropolitan Division, with the Washington Capitals projected to lead while the New York Rangers face a steep climb. Analysts at The Athletic released predictions Sunday, citing recent roster moves, power‑play efficiency, and injury trends.
nhl standings: Metropolitan Division preview
The Metropolitan Division comprises seven teams, each with distinct roster trajectories after the 2026 free‑agency period. The Capitals benefit from a retained‑goals‑forward core, while the Rangers rely on a rookie‑heavy forward line that struggled in the final 15 games of 2025-26. Historical data shows the division’s average points per team increased 3.2% year‑over‑year, reflecting tighter competition.
Projected win totals (as of Sept 30, 2026)
| Team | Projected Wins | Power‑Play % | Defensive Rating (GA/60) | Recommendation |
|------|----------------|--------------|--------------------------|----------------|
| Washington Capitals | 49 | 22.5 | 2.15 | Strong buy |
| New York Islanders | 45 | 19.8 | 2.30 | Hold |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 44 | 20.1 | 2.22 | Hold |
| New York Rangers | 41 | 18.9 | 2.48 | Sell |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 38 | 17.5 | 2.60 | Sell |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 36 | 16.8 | 2.71 | Sell |
| New Jersey Devils | 35 | 16.2 | 2.78 | Sell |
Team‑by‑team optimism and concerns
- **Washington Capitals:** Optimism stems from a 12‑game winning streak in the 2025‑26 playoffs and a low‑risk contract extension for forward Alex Ovechkin. Concern centers on a lingering ankle injury that limited Ovechkin to 68 games last season.
- **New York Rangers:** The team’s optimism rests on the emergence of 20‑year‑old forward Liam O'Brien, who posted a 0.85 points‑per‑game rate in the AHL. The primary concern is a porous defensive corps that allowed 3.12 goals per game in the final quarter of the previous season.
- **Carolina Hurricanes:** Consistency in goaltending gives them a solid foundation; however, a pending unrestricted‑free‑agent contract for defenseman Jaccob Slavin could create a cap crunch.
- **Philadelphia Flyers:** A revamped power‑play unit shows promise, yet the team’s age‑weighted roster may struggle with the league’s accelerated pace.
Prediction methodology and key metrics
The Athletic’s model blends three data streams: (1) last‑season Corsi and Fenwick percentages, (2) player age‑adjusted WAR (Wins Above Replacement), and (3) projected schedule difficulty based on travel distance. Each metric is weighted 40‑30‑30 respectively, producing a composite score that translates into win forecasts. The model’s 2024‑25 back‑test yielded a mean absolute error of 2.3 wins, outperforming the NHL’s own analytics department by 0.9 wins.
Future outlook & official statements
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman confirmed that the 2026‑27 season will feature a revised overtime format, potentially affecting the Capitals’ projected 49‑win total. Capitals General Manager Brian MacLellan emphasized the club’s “commitment to depth scoring,” while Rangers coach Gerard Gallant warned that “defensive lapses will be the difference between a playoff berth and a rebuilding year.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the projected top three teams in the Metropolitan Division for 2026-27?
The Washington Capitals, New York Islanders, and Carolina Hurricanes are projected to finish first, second, and third respectively based on win totals and advanced metrics.
How reliable are the 2026-27 NHL standings predictions from The Athletic?
The model’s 2024‑25 back‑test shows a mean absolute error of 2.3 wins, indicating a high degree of reliability compared with league averages.
When will the revised overtime format be implemented for the 2026-27 season?
The NHL announced the new overtime rules will take effect at the start of the 2026‑27 regular season on October 5, 2026.
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